MindsetProdigy

Highly recommended

How to Decide

Simple Tools for Making Better Choices

by Annie Duke

A former poker champion offers practical tools and exercises for making better decisions.

  • Published 2020
  • Easy read
  • Practical guidance
  • 1 min analysis
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Introduction

Annie Duke, a former professional poker player and decision strategist, published How to Decide in 2020 as a practical follow-up to Thinking in Bets. It includes exercises and worksheets.

She teaches readers to separate decision quality from outcomes and to think in probabilities.

Who should read this book?

Anyone who wants practical tools for everyday and big decisions.

Helps with: Think and decide more clearly

The central message

Better decisions come from separating outcomes from decision quality, estimating probabilities and knowing when to decide quickly.

Key ideas and concepts

  1. Resulting

    Judging decisions by outcomes.

  2. Decision trees

    Map possible outcomes and probabilities.

  3. Happiness test

    If it won't matter in a week, decide fast.

  4. Freerolls

    Low-risk options worth taking.

  5. Outside view

    Check how things usually go.

Deeper analysis

How to Decide is highly practical, with exercises that make concepts usable. It complements Thinking in Bets well.

The workbook format may feel repetitive, and some ideas overlap with her earlier book. It's an excellent practical guide.

Practical applications

  • Evaluate a past decision separately from its result.
  • Draw a simple decision tree.
  • Use the happiness test for small choices.
  • Look for freerolls.
  • Check the base rate.

Your 7-day action plan

  1. Day 1

    Learn resulting.

  2. Day 2

    Review a past decision.

  3. Day 3

    Build a decision tree.

  4. Day 4

    Use the happiness test.

  5. Day 5

    Find a freeroll.

  6. Day 6

    Use the outside view.

  7. Day 7

    Reflect.

Outcomes to expect

What readers who apply this book can realistically take away from it:

  • Better decisions
  • Faster small choices
  • Probabilistic thinking
  • Learning from outcomes

Strengths and limitations

Strengths

  • Very practical
  • Exercises
  • Complements Thinking in Bets
  • Clear

Limitations

  • Workbook repetition
  • Overlaps with earlier book
  • Simple for experts

Reflection questions

  1. Was it a bad decision or bad luck?
  2. What are the possible outcomes?
  3. Will it matter in a week?
  4. What's the base rate?

About the author

Annie Duke

Former professional poker player and author of Thinking in Bets.

Full profile and books

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Book details (title, author, year) are factual. Everything under the headings above is MindsetProdigy's own editorial analysis and interpretation, written to help you decide whether to read the book and how to apply it. It is not a substitute for reading the book itself. Last updated October 2, 2026.